Big Numbers and their Implications

Ok  -- I just got back from this morning’s keynote. Among the big announcements, we at CTIA unveiled our latest wireless metrics. Some highlights: More than 255million wireless users in the US as of YE07. Those 255+ million  folks used more than 2 trillion minutes (roughly the equivalent of total traffic on the landline networks around 1992 – the pre-dial-up days), and more than 360 billion text messages were reported by the carriers for 07.  Moreover, data usage continues to see dramatic increases—more and more people are using differentiated wireless data applications more often.  Along this line, the FCC’s High Speed Report was released about a week or two ago. It showed that not only have wireless broadband connections continued to grow at a rate that dwarfs both DSL and cable, but wireless now accounts for more than 30% of the total broadband lines in the US.  Now, this is obviously a great thing for everybody – but are there larger implications here?  

For me, as more people turn to wireless for internet connectivity, and as the volume and variety of traffic on these networks continues to grow, carriers are obviously going to continue shaping the on-network traffic. They’ve been doing it forever, since the 1G systems were in place, and they’re great it at.  Wireless networks are amazing things – they’ve evolved impressively and will continue to.  As I said above, the two trillion minutes reported in 2007 was the approximate equivalent of the total traffic on the landline networks as of  1992 –  and almost nobody had a cellphone in ’92.  So, I guess it’s safe to assume that 2 trillion represented the overwhelming majority of voice communications.  Well, wireless did that volume of voice last year – and 360+ billion text messages, and music, and games, and mobile tv……

You get my point.  A dizzying amount and assortment of traffic is flowing over and through these networks – and that volume and array is only going to increase and widen.  Yes, the carriers will continue to spend tens of billions every year upgrading their networks so they can continue to deliver all the services we know today, and the Star Treck-esque stuff of tomorrow.  At the same time, we need to understand that in order for the ever-increasing volume and variety of services and applications to be effectively delivered, carriers need to shape and manage the on-network traffic.