Brilliant Men and Bad Ideas

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

-Albert Einstein

If we are to judge M2Z’s broadband proposal in the AWS 3 proceedings by Einstein’s criteria, then someone is clearly missing the point. We’ve seen publicly-financed broadband wireless networks fail again and again.    See San Francisco.  See New Orleans.  See Philadelphia.   In fact, the Philadelphia Inquirer just wrote an article on the subject. (link)

It’s not that free broadband isn’t an intriguing idea:  it is.  And companies should have the latitude to voluntarily provide such a no-cost service.  There’s just one problem: it’s not a feasible, working model.  Many have already tried and failed. That we know for sure.    

Forget the basic economics of the proposal, and how one of its fundamentals is the significant role bonds would play in the business funding. My guess is that financial interest in this kind of risky venture might have waned somewhat given our recent economic turbulence. That in itself is a substantial factor which the FCC should take into account. But when looking at the M2Z proposal in terms of pure policy, I think before we start to tailor policy to pursue a specific end, we need to dispassionately assess the status quo: What’s the problem with broadband in America today? 

According to the FCC’s latest data, there were more than 100 million high-speed connections in the US as of June 2007 – and that data is now more than year old.  Estimates peg June 2008 broadband subscribership at more than 130 million – that’s an impressive number, and one that is assuredly going to grow as wireless service providers continue to expand their 3G networks.   

While it is critically important that all of those wanting broadband access receive it, it's also interesting to note that many of those citizens who don’t have broadband connections aren't clamoring for them.  According to the Pew Internet & American Life Project, 19% of dial-up users say “nothing could get them to switch to broadband.”

Wireless companies spend billions of dollars annually improving and expanding broadband networks.  There is wireless broadband in places today that there wasn’t yesterday, and there will be wireless broadband in places tomorrow where there isn’t any today.  Service providers will continue to expand their networks, but 100% broadband adoption is an unrealistic goal because there just isn't a market for it. Selling spectrum subject to heavy conditions to benefit a specific business model, which has repeatedly failed in the past, is a terrible waste of taxpayer money and valuable spectrum. The failed Muni WiFi experiments were based on false assumptions, and giving the concept another shot in the form of M2Z is just... well...  Einstein was a pretty sharp guy, wasn't he?