“If we really want to see a world where broadband is becoming a reality for anyone via both fixed and mobile, much more spectrum will need to be allocated to wireless broadband,” adds Bergendahl.
So-called net neutrality legislation could block development of convergence as well. “I think you are going to have a number of the issues around net neutrality and how you are allocating spectrum,” Bergendahl continues. “In one way net neutrality is opening up anyone to use the network, but on the other side, the one going to make huge investments will need deep pockets. If they don’t get any advantage out of that investment it will be one blocking factor.”
Some states also are putting obstacles in the path of convergence. Entner cites the case of Massachusetts, where consumers may not order over the phone a contract for bundled services that lasts more than one year. “That makes it more cumbersome,” Entner says.
Consumer interest will come gradually
There may be one additional hurdle to convergence that could be even more difficult to overcome—consumer disinterest in convergent devices and services.
“One of the potential problems in making convergence happen is finding the real benefit,” says Chamberlain. “Where is this big emptiness or lack that’s going to be filled with converged services? That’s a tough question to answer.”
Chamberlain believes the concept that people want everything on their desktops to be portable is flawed. “When you’re mobile you have very different needs and different interests. You have less time and less comfort in some ways. The idea of simply taking something that works great on a desktop and pretending that it’s absolutely the perfect situation when you’re on the road is incorrect.
“Ultimately that may be what we want to have available, but I don’t think that represents what’s going to be on the menu of absolutely every consumer,” Chamberlain adds.
In-Stat’s surveys have found that only 12 to 15 percent of wireless users are interested in video content. “But I do get a huge interest in mapping/navigation,” he continues. While most consumers use such navigation only infrequently at home, “the minute you get into your car that all changes. When you’re not at home you need to have location awareness: ‘Where am I? What can I buy? What can I do?’.”
applications in the wireless stage.”
John Harrobin
Verizon Wireless
